控制的错觉：我们为什么高估自己对事情的影响力
The Illusion of Control: Why We Overestimate Our Influence Over Events
In daily life, we tend to believe that we have more control over outcomes than we really do. Whether it’s making financial investments, playing games of chance, or wishing for good weather on an important day, people often act as if their own actions or choices can shape random or uncontrollable results. This widespread psychological tendency is known as the “illusion of control.”
在日常生活中，我们总认为自己比实际拥有的更大影响力。无论是炒股投资、参与靠运气的游戏，还是在重要日子祈盼好天气，人们常常表现得好像自己的行为或决定能左右那些实际上无法掌控的事情。这种普遍的心理现象被称为“控制的错觉”。
The illusion of control arises from our need to feel competent and secure. When facing uncertainty, believing that we can influence the outcome helps reduce anxiety and gives us a sense of power. For example, gamblers may feel they have a better chance of winning if they throw the dice themselves, or employees may think that small rituals—like wearing a lucky tie—can affect the results of a job interview.
控制的错觉，来源于我们渴望自信和安全的心理。当面对未知和不确定性时，相信自己能够掌控结果能减少焦虑并带来力量感。比如，赌徒相信自己亲手掷骰子的胜算更高，职场人员以为穿“幸运领带”等仪式能让面试更顺利。
This bias is reinforced by experience. If we succeed after taking a particular action, we are likely to associate that action with the positive result, even if it was pure coincidence. The mind tends to remember successes more than failures, which makes us forget how much was actually beyond our control.
这一偏见又常被经验所强化。如果某次采取了某个动作恰好取得好结果，我们就自然而然地将两者联系起来，即便二者其实没什么因果关系。大脑习惯只记住成功，忽视失败，从而让我们淡化了真实的无能为力。
Not only does the illusion of control affect individuals, but it can also influence groups and organizations. For instance, company leaders may overestimate their ability to predict or shape market trends, leading to overconfident decisions. On a larger scale, entire societies may cling to superstitions or policies that promise control over complex issues like the economy or public health.
这不仅影响个体，也会影响群体和组织。比如，企业领导常常高估自己预测或影响市场的能力，导致决策过于自信。在更宏观层面，整个社会可能会过分依赖迷信或所谓“万能方案”，以期在经济、公共健康等复杂领域获得掌控感。
While some sense of control is essential for motivation and planning, it’s just as important to recognize our limits. Accepting uncertainty where it truly exists can help us make more rational decisions, plan for risks, and reduce unnecessary stress. Understanding the illusion of control teaches us humility—and perhaps helps us cope better with life’s unpredictability.
当然，适度的“掌控感”有助于激励和规划，但我们同样需要意识到自己的极限。当事情本来充满不确定性时，坦然承认这一点，能让我们做出更合理的判断，提早预防风险，也能减少无谓的焦虑。理解“控制的错觉”，能帮我们保持谦逊，也许还能让我们学会更平和地应对生活的不可预知。
【短语积累 Vocabulary Bank】
- illusion of control —— 控制的错觉
- believe in one’s influence —— 相信自己的影响力
- act as if —— 表现得好像
- face/facing uncertainty —— 面对不确定性
- reduce anxiety —— 缓解焦虑
- sense of power —— 权力感，掌控感
- associate A with B —— 将A和B联系在一起
- remember successes more than failures —— 更记得成功而忽略失败
- rational decision —— 理性决策
- accept uncertainty —— 接受不确定性
- cope with unpredictability —— 应对不可预知
📌文章CEFR 等级： B2–C1 级
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